Mobile phone masts linked to sharp rise in births
Creating a phony health scare with the power of statistical correlation

From Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal Via Skepchick.
Atheists, agnostics most knowledgeable about religion, reporting on the Pew Forum U.S. Religious Knowledge Survey begins
If you want to know about God, you might want to talk to an atheist.
Heresy? Perhaps. But a survey that measured Americans’ knowledge of religion found that atheists and agnostics knew more, on average, than followers of most major faiths.
A majority of Protestants, for instance, couldn’t identify Martin Luther as the driving force behind the Protestant Reformation, according to the survey, released Tuesday by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. Four in 10 Catholics misunderstood the meaning of their church’s central ritual, incorrectly saying that the bread and wine used in Holy Communion are intended to merely symbolize the body and blood of Christ, not actually become them.
So why would an atheist know more about religion than a Christian?
American atheists and agnostics tend to be people who grew up in a religious tradition and consciously gave it up, often after a great deal of reflection and study, said Alan Cooperman, associate director for research at the Pew Forum.
“These are people who thought a lot about religion,” he said. “They’re not indifferent. They care about it.”
Terry Mattingly, in Brilliant doubters, dull believers? makes the same point, with rather more snark:
Well, the sexy lede out of this study is that atheists and agnostics know more about religion than, well, religious people. That is just accurate enough to be misleading. It’s also not all that surprising. I know very few people who are as obsessed with the fine details of religion as highly motivated unbelievers. As the old saying goes, the opposite of love is not hate, it’s apathy.
He goes on to raise a really good question:
According to the researchers, a person’s education was the single best predictor of how she or he would score. I do not doubt that. However, when I have a chance to dig further into this data, I will be looking for evidence of a pew gap in this Pew effort.
In other words, did anyone try to find out if the intensity of a person’s religious practice has anything to do with knowledge. In other words, do daily Mass Catholics know more about Catholicism and other religions than inactive Catholics? Do Jews who regularly attend worship services know more about, well, Maimonides than Jews who are completely secular? Do Evangelicals who take part in foreign missions projects know more about Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, etc., than people who say they are vaguely “Protestant” and that’s that?
Recall from above that
American atheists and agnostics tend to be people who grew up in a religious tradition and consciously gave it up, often after a great deal of reflection and study….
The atheists and agnostics, as a group, are quite committed to their beliefs or lack thereof. All religions have some members with a comparable level of commitment, but the big ones also have a lot of others, e.g. Christians who only show up in church at Christmas and Easter. I suspect the results of such a survey would look quite different if you looked at only those believers who showed the same level of commitment as the atheists and agnostics. I doubt that many of Mattingly’s “daily Mass Catholics” think “that the bread and wine used in Holy Communion are intended to merely symbolize the body and blood of Christ, not actually become them.”
I am once again selling books from my library. I shipped one today, getting $78 for it. Today I listed another 10 math, physics, and statistics books at Amazon.com. My pricing strategy is simple: For any given book my price is clearly the lowest. In a couple cases that still let me set a price in 3 digits. There is also a history book I want to sell, but I am giving colgaffneyis members a chance at it before going to Amazon.
Again there was a quantum mechanics text that, after some thought, decided I could not bear parting with. I wonder if it was the same book as back in 2005.
From Stanford University News and Symmetry Magazine (The latter has a small but important correction—See the 1st comment and the response)
It’s a mystery that presented itself unexpectedly: The radioactive decay of some elements sitting quietly in laboratories on Earth seemed to be influenced by activities inside the sun, 93 million miles away.
Is this possible?
Researchers from Stanford and Purdue universities believe it is. But their explanation of how it happens opens the door to yet another mystery.
Also discussed by Jeff Duntemann.
The article mentioned the decays Silicon-32 and Radium-226, as reported in Evidence for Correlations Between Nuclear Decay Rates and Earth-Sun Distance back in 2008. Similarly, Perturbation of Nuclear Decay Rates During the Solar Flare of 13 December 2006 indicated a solar dependence on the decay of Manganese-54. The suggestion that radioactive decay rates might in some way depend on the sun is quite extraordinary, and has prompted the reanalysis of a lot of data. Evidence against correlations between nuclear decay rates and Earth-Sun distance looked at the decay of 6 other radioisotopes without seeing any such dependence. There is no obvious dependence on atomic weight or other systematic difference between the elements.
There are different types of radioactive decay. Radium-226 decays by emitting an α particle (a Helium nucleus: 2 protons and 2 neutrons) while Silicon-32 is a case of β decay (emission of an electron). Manganese-54 decays by electron capture, which is essentially time-reversed β decay. α-decay is a manifestation of the of the strong nuclear force, while β-decay is a weak interaction. If the solar effect is real, then affects two differenct fundamental forces of nature.
John G. Cramer, in Radioactive Decay and the Earth-Sun Distance suggested that
…the Earth’s orbit has a very small eccentricity, so the annual variations in R [the Earth-Sun distance] are small. A better way of testing whether radioactive decay rates depend directly on 1/R2 would be to monitor a radioactive decay process within a space vehicle in a long elliptic orbit with a large eccentricity, so that R has a very large variation. As it happens, NASA has a number of space probes that match this description, because many space probes, particularly those that venture into the outer reaches of the Solar System, are powered by radioisotope-driven thermoelectric power sources containing a strong radioactive decay source that produces enough energy as heat to power the vehicle. The power levels of such thermoelectric generators are carefully monitored because they constitute the principal power source of the vehicle.
This has been done. According to Peter Cooper, in Searching for modifications to the exponential radioactive decay law with the Cassini spacecraft
Data from the power output of the radioisotope thermoelectric generators aboard the Cassini spacecraft are used to test the conjecture that small deviations observed in terrestrial measurements of the exponential radioactive decay law are correlated with the Earth-Sun distance. No significant deviations from exponential decay are observed over a range of 0.7 – 1.6 A.U. A 90% Cl upper limit of 0.84 x 10-4 is set on a term in the decay rate of Pu-238 proportional to 1/R2 and 0.99 x 10-4 for a term proportional to 1/R.
Deep-space probes usually generate power from the heat emitted by a chunk of radioactive material-plutonium-238 for the Cassini spacecraft. Cassini journeyed as close to the sun as Venus and then far back to Saturn, spanning a much wider range of distances from the sun than Earth does during its yearly orbit. If the sun had an effect on plutonium decay, the fluctuations would have been much more substantial than those seen in Earth-bound experiments. As a result, Cooper reasoned, Cassini should have measured substantial changes in its generator’s output. It didn’t.
The Stanford/Symmetry article included something new. Peter Sturrock, Professor Emeritus of Applied Physics at Stanford, suggested is that some of the variation in the Radium-226 and Silicon-32 decay rates is related to solar rotation. From Evidence for Solar Influences on Nuclear Decay Rates
Recent reports of periodic fluctuations in nuclear decay data of certain isotopes have led to the suggestion that nuclear decay rates are being influenced by the Sun, perhaps via neutrinos. Here we present evidence for the existence of an additional periodicity that appears to be related to the Rieger periodicity well known in solar physics.
Links to the research reports can be found at Variability of Nuclear Decay rates. Search for “Research papers: PERIODIC VARIATIONS: SCALE OF DAYS OR YEARS” and “Research papers: NON-PERIODIC VARIATIONS:” Subheading “Of Cosmic Origin”. Thanks to arXiv.org information about current research in physics is easily accessible.
Peter Sturrock was my first course advisor when I was a graduate student in his department at Stanford, 1972-1975. At one point there I wanted to take a course in mathematical statistics. I was a little hesitant about this, since the subject is somewhat off the main direction of graduate study in physics. To my surprise, Professor Sturrock strongly encouraged me to do so. Whatever the conclusion about the relationship between the sun and radioactive decay may be, there will be a lot of statistical analysis along the way.
Having taken, and understood, some serious classes in the mathematics of probability, the mentality of the gambler is incomprehensible to me. One of our cars has a bumper sticker that says: “Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math.”
So I found this interesting: Gambling: The almost-winning addiction
Abortion rate = 2.06 + 1.71 * Poverty rate (R2= 0.37)
Under that dry title you will read:
….abortion rates went down sharply during the Clinton administration, in spite of his pro-abortion stance. The change reversed in the current administration, in spite of Bush’s anti-abortion stance….
The single most effective anti-abortion activity in the last 23 years was the reduction of poverty
From Monastic Musings.