Author Archives: gmcdavid

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About gmcdavid

Retired IT professional with a wide range of interests. Married. Three sons, two with autistic-spectrum disorders and the third being transgender with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. From Chicago but now living in the Twin Cities metro, Minnesota. Episcopalian. Carleton College (BA 1972, physics) and Stanford University (MS 1974, Applied Physics; MS 1976 Statistics).

Neil deGrasse Tyson on Star Trek

I have learned three of life’s lessons from this series: (1) in the end, you will be judged on the integrity of your mission, whether or not your mission was successful; (2) you can always outsmart a computer; and (3) never be the first person to investigate a glowing blob of plasma on an alien planet.

Happy anniversary, Star Trek. Live long and prosper.

Neil deGrasse Tyson, Space Chronicles: Facing the Ultimate Frontier

Dinner with Attila the Hun – A contemporary account

While for the other barbarians and for us there were lavishly prepared dishes served on silver platters, for Attila there was only meat on a wooden plate . . . Gold and silver goblets were handed to the men at the feast, whereas his cup was of wood. His clothing was plain and differed not at all from that of the rest, except that it was clean. Neither the sword that hung at his side nor the fastenings of his barbarian boots nor his horse’s bridle was adorned, like those of the other Scythians, with gold or precious stones.

Peter Heather, The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians, Oxford University Press, p. 320

Thomas Bayes looks through the NSA’s “Prism”

Leaked NSA slide-deck claims that NSA has “direct access” to servers at Google, Apple, Facebook, Skype, Yahoo, and many others

This story has received a lot of coverage in the last few days, even extending to Jay Leno’s monologue. Understandably, there is a lot of concern about the civil liberties implications. But there is also another question, answered by Corey Chivers: How likely is the NSA PRISM program to catch a terrorist?

We don’t really know anything about how PRISM works (NSA = Never Say Anything), but with some plausible assumptions we can estimate the answer. Suppose

  1. If a terrorist is in the system, the probability is 99% that PRISM will flag him/her.
  2. An good guy has only a 1/100 chance of being flagged as potential terrorist.
  3. The actual number of terrorists is quite small, say 1 in 1,000,000.

Using Bayes’ rule, Chivers shows that only 1 in 10,102 of the people flagged as suspects will actually be a terrorist!
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